The hottest prediction is that the export growth r

2022-10-15
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It is predicted that the export growth in January will increase or be better than expected

it is predicted that the export growth in January will increase or be better than expected

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the export data in January will be released soon. According to the forecasts of many institutions, China's export growth in January was at least about 20% year-on-year, which will be significantly higher than 17.9% in December last year. And from the current situation at home and abroad, it is expected that the export situation this year will be better than the general market expectation at the end of last year

the export data of January will be released soon. According to the forecasts of many institutions, China's export growth in January was at least about 20% year-on-year, which will be significantly higher than 17.9% in December last year. Moreover, judging from the current domestic and international situation, it is expected that the export situation this year will be better than that generally expected by the market at the end of last year

according to the data collected, Industrial Bank predicted the lowest export growth in January, 19.7%. Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at industrial bank, said that from the data of China's export container transportation market, although the cargo volume of North America, Europe and the Mediterranean routes grew sluggishly in the middle and early January, the export container cargo volume rebounded significantly in the middle and late January, driven by the peak shipment before the Spring Festival holiday. On the whole, the volume of goods in January remained stable. "It is expected that exports in January will fall into the range of 18% to 21.4% year-on-year, with a median of 19.7%, up 1.8 percentage points from December last year."

the prediction of Bank of communications is much higher than that of Industrial Bank. Tang Jianwei, a senior Macro Analyst at the financial research center of the Bank of communications, said that from the perspective of historical trends, the export scale at the beginning of the year will generally fall back compared with the end of the previous year. However, from the perspective of the demand of overseas markets, the slow recovery of developed economies in Europe, the United States and Japan is becoming more and more stable, and the highlights of the recovery are also gradually increasing. In the short term, the "double bottom" will lead to the urgent export environment, and the possibility of sharp deterioration of the use parameters of Jinan test safety belt impact testing machine is very small. The export volume in January is expected to increase by 23.2% over the same period last year

Orient Securities' prediction is higher. It believes that the current U.S. consumer confidence has increased, and the actual personal consumption expenditure has rapidly moved closer to the pre crisis level. At the same time, due to the low inflation rate and the continuous economic stimulus policy, the economy has begun to accelerate. In this context, China's trade should first consider whether the installation of the main part of the experimental machine is vertical. The conditions will continue to improve, and the price level of export products will rise. In addition, compared with December last year, the export base decreased in January this year, and the year-on-year value of exports will rebound, with an expected year-on-year increase of 24.5%

although the export industry survey released by Monita (Shanghai) Investment Development Co., Ltd. on January 31 did not predict specific figures, it also confirmed the improvement of domestic exports in January. According to the report, China's shipping market entered the peak period of pre holiday shipments in January, and the transportation demand increased significantly. The ports in East China and South China all reported that the time for workers to go home for the holiday this year was earlier than in previous years, and the shortage of fleet and wharf staff was very serious

judging from the current situation, as the U.S. economy shows signs of recovery, the export situation this year may be better than expected at the end of last year. Great Wall Securities believes that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the decline in export growth. Although the quarter on quarter growth rate of exports in the fourth quarter of last year was lower than the historical average, we should see that the quarter on quarter growth rate of imports and exports has remained positive, indicating that imports and exports are gradually recovering. The appreciation of the RMB and the rise in the price of bulk oil replaceable commodities will also drive the rise in the price of export commodities, which is conducive to the resumption of export growth

Tang Jianwei also told that the recovery of developed economies in Europe, the United States and Japan will be more improved in 2011, and consumer confidence is also increasing. The possibility of sharp deterioration of the external environment in the short term is very low, the export environment will gradually improve, and the year-on-year growth rate will gradually return to the level of normal years

Li Fangyu, chief analyst of Changjiang Securities Research Institute, said that if the export situation is disassembled and analyzed according to the export price and export volume, the export price may still fall in the first quarter of the year, and there will be a certain recovery in the second quarter. At the same time, we are optimistic about the economic recovery of the United States in the first half of the year, and overseas demand remains optimistic. From the analysis of historical data, although the contribution of export volume to the whole export of wine in barrels year-on-year is relatively large, when the trend of price and volume deviates, the export situation is unlikely to rise and fall significantly, and it is more likely to maintain a volatile trend in its original position

"therefore, we believe that in the first quarter, as the price has not yet bottomed out year-on-year, although the recovery of external demand may have been seen, the export will remain at the current level and be relatively stable, and there may be a certain improvement only when the volume and price advantages appear together in the second quarter. It is expected that the overall year-on-year growth rate of exports in the first half of the year will be between 20% and 25% Li Feiyu said

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