The hottest prediction is that the recovery of new

Prediction: the recovery of new real estate construction is good for the construction machinery industry

prediction: the recovery of new real estate construction is good for the construction machinery industry

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the construction machinery sector continued to outperform the market in November. The sales of construction machinery continued to be depressed in October, and the construction machinery sector index continued to decline in November. As of October 27, the construction machinery sector fell 6.9% in the month, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3% in the same period, and the Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.6%. The sector fell for the sixth consecutive month

the construction machinery sector continued to underperform the market in November. The sales of construction machinery continued to be depressed in October, and the construction machinery sector index continued to decline in November. As of October 27, the construction machinery sector fell 6.9% in the month, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3% in the same period, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 4.6%. The sector underperformed the market for the sixth consecutive month

the investment in capital construction and fixed assets recovered in October. The investment in fixed assets of the transportation and postal industry increased to 8.6%, of which the investment in railway fixed assets narrowed significantly from -23.9% in August to -1.4%, and the investment in railway in a single month in October reached 84.6 billion, if it was to reach 3.3% Brand importance: achieve the annual target of 630 billion yuan, and the investment amount of each month in the next two months will exceed 100 billion yuan respectively; The growth rate of investment in water conservancy and environmental public facilities was expanded to 17.5%; The investment growth rate of electric heating, gas and water heating production and supply industry was slightly narrowed, but there was still a rapid growth of 18.6%

the bottom of real estate investment has appeared, but the upward trend is not clear. In April, the investment in real estate development was completed: the abnormal return value was 5.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. It was flat in August, the growth rate did not fall further, and the bottom was gradually explored. The sales area of commercial housing fell by 1.1% year-on-year, 3 percentage points narrower than that of the month, and the rebound trend continued; The new construction area in January fell by 8.5% year-on-year, which was basically flat in February

the sales of construction machinery continued to be sluggish in October. In October, the sales of excavators, loaders, truck cranes, bulldozers and rollers fell by 33.6%, 32.9%, 19.4%, 10.1% and 42.1% year-on-year respectively; From January to October, the cumulative sales fell by 36.1%, 27.8%, 37.5%, 25.5% and 41% respectively. The infrastructure investment has accelerated the recovery, not related to railway and water conservancy infrastructure. The experimental machine adopts the internationally popular host structure, imported servo speed regulation system and electromechanical (Panasonic, Japan), imported reducer (Germany), imported ball screw (Germany) with a higher degree. The sales data of bulldozers are gradually improving compared with the same period, and the data of other sub industries are not significantly improved, and the cumulative decline is not significantly narrowed. In the export market, selle Royal designed different cushions for men and women, which performed better than the domestic market, but the growth rate gradually narrowed

industry sales will continue to be at the bottom at the end of the year. Infrastructure investment has recovered in an all-round way. Due to the disturbance of factors such as industrial volume, inventory and accounts receivable, the sales of construction machinery are relatively slow to reflect the downstream demand; At the same time, as the real estate has not yet shown signs of recovery, which also restricts the improvement of construction machinery sales, we expect that the industry sales will still be at the bottom in the first quarter of next year. However, the bottom of downstream investment has been proved, and the future trend is good. Coupled with the expected reform dividend, our pessimism about the downstream demand for construction machinery has weakened. It is expected that the industry sales will improve to a certain extent around the second quarter of next year