The hottest Shanghai copper rebounded, and the cop

2022-08-13
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Shanghai copper rebounded, and the copper sector experienced a turnaround.

the CSI Shenwan nonferrous metal index has continued to fall since the fourth quarter, bottoming out at a low level in the past two weeks. The trading volume of the nonferrous sector was relatively low, below the average trading volume on the 5th, 10th and 20th, and the downturn at the downstream demand side was transmitted to the A-share nonferrous sector. On December 6, Shanghai copper hit the bottom and rebounded after a continuous retreat. From December 7 to 21, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose by 5.34%, stronger than other non-ferrous varieties. On the A-share market, the copper sector leader also followed Shanghai copper in the past five days, coming out of a level stronger than the non-ferrous metal index. Among them, Jiangxi Copper rose 4.89%, Tongling Nonferrous Metals rose 2.96%, western mining rose 2.23%, and Yunnan Copper rose 1.81%

at the beginning of the fourth quarter, in the off-season of the household appliance industry in the third quarter, the statutory tax rate of 10% will be resumed next year for the purchase of small displacement vehicles. Driven by the driving effect of factors such as the year-on-year rise in the data of the automotive industry, combined with the expectation of the seven waste articles on the limitation of waste copper, the copper price hit a new high in the year, up to 55910 yuan/ton. According to the data research, the copper consumption of household appliances (15%) and transportation (13%) accounted for 28%. As of December 20, the weighted average price was 49220 yuan/ton, up 30.4% from 37745 yuan/ton in the same period last year

from the current macro environment, the world monetary fund announced that the global economic growth in 2017 was 3.63%, which exceeded the expectation of the end of last year. The economic data of the economies led by the United States hit the bottom and recovered. The fiscal stimulus of the Federal Reserve played a driving role in the economy. Although the demand of China (accounting for 46.3% of the global demand) showed signs of overdraft in the first three quarters, the recovery of emerging countries in Asia other than China (accounting for 21.64% of the global demand) made up for this demand gap

the financial attribute of copper is second only to crude oil and gold, and the dollar index fell by 12.35% from the peak at the beginning of 2017 to the low at the beginning of the third quarter. In addition, the Russian exchange rate rose steadily and slightly, raising the cost of copper mining and production, pushing up the copper price on the cost side, resulting in the upward shift of the current copper price focus. Therefore, it is difficult for copper prices to fall excessively in the absence of obvious negative conditions on the supply and demand side

from the current supply and demand situation of copper, on the supply side, the negotiation of copper concentrate processing fee limits the spot copper concentrate market. In December, Xu Fei, director of the Department of industry and information technology of the Tibet Autonomous Region of the National Bureau of statistics, released data on the 18th, showing that China's refined copper production in November increased by 9.8% over the same period last year to 786000 tons, the highest level since December 2014. On a month on month basis, the refined copper output in October was 781000 tons, an increase of only 5000 tons on a month on month basis. Although there is a large amount of refined copper production capacity, the actual supply increment is not enough to lead to a sharp decline in copper prices due to the supply of copper concentrate. From the perspective of demand, the current fourth quarter is still in the low season of the impact of new technologies represented by the new generation of information technology on traditional industries. The performance of spot goods also confirms this view. Downstream enterprises are relatively cautious in receiving goods, and the wide fluctuation of copper prices also increases the difficulty of downstream receiving operations, which is in a tangled state. The short-term supply elasticity is low, the consumer demand has not improved, and the contradiction is not obvious. In the medium and long term, we can pay attention to the production capacity of refined copper and the limitation of ore supply, because the field of new materials is one of its elements. The future market is mainly based on the cyclical rhythm. As time goes on, the price space is expected to expand. At present, copper futures forward contracts maintain a good premium pattern. Under the current pattern, the market wide strategy is the main strategy, and the over-the-counter option strategy can use the sell wide span combination

in terms of spot, on December 20, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 240 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton for the contract of the month, the transaction price of Ping Shui copper was 53300 yuan/ton to 53360 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of Shengshui copper was 53320 yuan/ton to 53400 yuan/ton. Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate at a high level, while downstream transactions were depressed, and the holders increased their efforts to clear inventory due to year-end settlement. The morning quotation showed the characteristics of dumping goods. The quotation discount was 220-170 yuan/ton, which was expanded all the way to 230-190 yuan/ton, and the discount of good copper was 200 yuan/ton

towards the end of the year, some traders began to settle accounts, and the main purpose of the holders was to return funds. The activity of spot trading has decreased significantly. With the continuous rebound of copper prices, there has been a strong fear of heights in the downstream for a long time, and only take goods according to rigid needs or consume the original inventory. If the market continues to rise, it is not ruled out that the spot discount will further expand

on the whole, spot trading is limited by the current tight capital environment, the continuous decline of inventory and the off-season on the demand side restrict trading activity, and prices form a tug of war in the short term

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