The hottest steel price is weak, and it is difficu

2022-09-19
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The weak start of steel prices is difficult to change before the Spring Festival

in 2017, the weak start of domestic construction steel prices is mainly caused by the change of supply and demand pattern. At present, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and the downstream construction sites are shutting down one after another, while the construction sites in the northern region are basically shut down due to low temperatures. Although the steel plants have been overhauled due to haze, the domestic construction steel supply is still at a high level driven by profits. Therefore, in the state of strong supply and weak demand, steel prices have to maintain a weak pattern. As for the trend before the Spring Festival, the decline in steel prices may not change. The following is a detailed analysis of the specific reasons

first of all, although the supply has declined, it is still at a high level. Since the beginning of winter last year, all parts of the north have experienced severe haze weather for many times, and the environmental protection accuracy of all parts can meet the requirements. The Department has conducted strict inspections on the production of steel mills for many times, and the production of steel mills in many places is seriously limited, so the output of steel mills has been restrained to a certain extent. However, due to the current profits of steel mills are still acceptable, they still spare no effort to carry out production, and some steel mills have been notified by the national environmental protection department of stealing production. So how about the output? According to the published statistical data, the average daily output of crude steel in China was about 2.2 million tons in November/December 2016, while it was about 2.1 million tons in the same period in 2015. Therefore, in terms of output, it is still at a high level. The amount of entering the social inventory reservoir from the steel plant has also shown an upward pattern for several consecutive weeks, mainly due to the rapid decline in demand and the slow decline in supply, which led to the recovery of social inventory. According to the current situation, except for some winter maintenance and some limited production due to haze, other steel mills in China have not experienced large-scale maintenance. Therefore, the market supply pressure in the later period should not be underestimated

secondly, from the perspective of demand, the current low temperature in the north is not suitable for the construction requirements of outdoor construction sites. In addition, the environmental protection departments in various regions also require the construction sites to be shut down in haze weather, so the construction sites in the north are basically in a state of shutdown. Although there are still construction sites in the south, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and the project in the final state, the demand for construction sites is also at a low level. Therefore, from the perspective of seasonal factors, the current spot demand for steel has shrunk significantly, and the current spot price is higher than last year's level, exceeding the market and business expectations. The high price has greatly reduced the willingness of businesses to stock up, And it seems that the device is designed to be used for non financing, and the demand will continue to shrink before the Spring Festival, and businesses are also more cautious

in addition, the driving force of the early stage is gradually losing, and the cost side support is declining. Recently, the ore price is about $80/ton, but it is worth noting that the domestic iron ore inventory has been in a high position, and the later fall space has been opened, while after the steel billet price was at the peak of 3110, the momentum of sprint was lost again, and the momentum of pushing up again was insufficient. In addition, the price of coke has fallen significantly, so the production profit of the steel plant is still considerable, the steel plant is still willing to reduce the price for shipment, and the market price adjustment has not yet been in place

based on the above considerations, with the entry of the new year, under the influence of seasonal factors, the supply and demand pattern of domestic construction steel has changed, coupled with the recent lack of cost support, market confidence is relatively weak, and the operation of price negotiation and delivery is common. Before the silicone oil leaks out of the oil cup (this process takes about 6 ~ 9 seconds), it is expected that the Spring Festival will affect the performance and accuracy of the electronic tensile testing machine by five factors: the price of domestic construction steel remains weak

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