The hottest steel price in the third quarter is ha

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Steel prices in the third quarter are hard to say bottoming

recently, transactions in the real estate market began to be active, bringing a trace of warmth to the steel market. However, market participants believe that the tone of the real estate regulation policy remains unchanged, and there is still a distance from the recovery of demand, so the steel price will continue to find the bottom

destocking is slow

on July 19, the rebar futures on the Shanghai futures exchange continued to hit a new low this year, and the main rebar 1301 contract closed at 3819 yuan per ton, down 1.01%, and the decline rate of steel prices has increased

recently, the transaction recovery in the downstream real estate market has disturbed the vision of investors in the steel market. However, market participants do not agree that the rebound in transactions means that the demand of the real estate market has rebounded

huanghuiwen, an analyst of Shanghai medium term futures, said in an interview with the international finance news: "although the transaction in the real estate market is good, the operating rate of the real estate market is still poor, and the steel price has not been effectively supported."

guest Tang, an analyst of Everbright futures, pointed out to the international finance news: "Despite the recent recovery of the real estate market and the slight rebound of house prices in some big cities, it has not stimulated the steel market. The reason is very simple. The current recovery is still based on the exchange of price for volume. Although the real estate price has increased a little, the loan interest has fallen, so it will be offset to a certain extent. This is not the signal of the second spring of the real estate market. The linear scan of real estate 4.1 is relatively simple: there are no regulation measures as a whole Substantial relaxation. Therefore, the demand for steel has not increased substantially. "

market participants also further judged through inventory data that the process of market de stocking is relatively slow, and the downstream market demand has not significantly improved

as of the week of July 13, the inventory of rebar in 24 major markets in China was 6.8232 million tons, a decrease of 9400 tons; The stock of wire rod was 1.748 million tons, a decrease of 42300 tons. Tang guests pointed out that from the perspective of rebar social inventory, the current inventory sales revenue of Guangya aluminum is 1.241 billion yuan, maintained at the front line of 6.8 million tons, and has basically not decreased since June. Huang Huiwen pointed out that the inventory level remains at a historical high, which is higher than that of the same period last year, and the current decline rate has slowed down. Under the hot weather, the construction site operating rate is not high, and the slow downstream procurement will continue to suppress the process of steel de stocking

production hit a new high

at a time of sluggish demand, steel production is still at a high level. Huang Huiwen said frankly that the trend of steel price is still subject to the asymmetry of output and supply, the downstream demand has not improved, and the supply pressure has not decreased

Tang guest pointed out: "although the steel plant continues to reduce the price of turbine and vortex rod structure operation, the continuous low price has not effectively restrained the output of the steel plant."

in June, China's crude steel and steel production were 60.21 million tons and 84.47 million tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and 6.7% respectively; The average daily output of crude steel and steel in June was 2.007 million tons and 2.8157 million tons respectively, an increase of 1.61% and 6.87% month on month compared with May. The average daily output of crude steel in June was only lower than the record high level in April, and the average daily output of steel reached a record high. CISA announced that the daily output of crude steel in the first ten days of July was 1657400 tons, an increase of 7200 tons, an increase of 0.44% over the ten day period, and the production pressure has not eased

at present, although most steel mills have been in a loss situation, the reduction in production of steel mills is not obvious. Some steel mills are still actively consuming the high price inventory in the early stage, and the capacity release of steel mills continues to remain at a high level. Tang guest analyzed that this is mainly because the steel price is falling, and the iron ore, coke and even coking coal in the upstream are also in the decline channel. Therefore, cost reduction can still free up some profit space for steel mills and maintain the current output status

Huang Huiwen also predicted that in the short term, the willingness of steel mills to significantly reduce production is not strong, and the output of steel mills is still expected to maintain a high level in the future

there is a long way to fall

analysts believe that it is still far away for steel prices to stop falling and stabilize

guest Tang believed that from the recent situation of the steel market, the price remained in the downward channel, and there was no sign of improvement after entering the third quarter

Huang Huiwen also agreed that the bottoming process of steel prices in the third quarter was still the same. Even if there was a rebound against the background of weak demand, the strength would also slightly reduce the overall export amount of the industry. She further pointed out that the steel price trend in the third quarter still needs to pay attention to the downstream demand, and the construction of affordable housing will become a hot spot in the future. At present, the construction rate of affordable housing is 43%, and the construction process will continue in the second half of the year. However, even if the affordable housing project is accelerated, it is impossible to significantly alleviate the current high steel production. In addition, the direction of real estate regulation and control policies will remain unchanged, and commercial housing construction will continue to be suppressed. Therefore, the downstream market demand in the third quarter is still limited

whether in the short-term or long-term, there is no sign of bottoming in the steel market

the early warning report on the trend of steel price index of Xiben Shinkansen shows that the prominent problems faced by the market at present are the continued weak demand, the continuous price reduction of steel mills, and the rising cost of capital, so the downward pressure on prices is still great. Tang guest said that on the whole, before there was no significant change in macro policies, steel prices remained weak in the third quarter, making it difficult to say the bottom

(source: Jiuzheng building materials)

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