The hottest steel price fell by about 20 in Januar

2022-09-24
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Steel prices fell by about 20% in January, industrial inflation pressure release

steel prices fell by about 20% in January, industrial inflation pressure release

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since the last month, the prices of various types of steel products have fallen rapidly

on March 20 this year, the billet price in Tangshan, Hebei Province was 3310 yuan per ton, but on April 19, it was only 2720 yuan per ton, which has decreased by 17.8%. Grade III deformed steel bar and hot coil are also similar

among them, iron ore has the largest decline. Rizhao Pb powder (a mineral in Australia) was priced at 465 yuan per ton on April 19, down 36.7% in two months from 735 yuan per ton on February 21

the decline in iron ore and steel prices means that industrial inflation pressure is reduced. According to the figures released by the National Bureau of statistics, in March 2017, the ex factory prices of industrial producers across the country increased by 7.6% year-on-year. Among them, the prices of ferrous metal mining and beneficiation (iron ore), ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing (steel) increased by 29% year-on-year, 36.8% year-on-year, and 4.8% and 2.4% month on month

Wu Shouxiang, chief strategist of Hongyuan futures, believes that the price of steel and iron ore fell month on month, mainly due to the acceleration of enterprise production in the early stage, which led to changes in the relationship between supply and demand. For example, there are more iron ore overstocks in ports now

"in the next stage, the country will increase the efforts to reduce production capacity, making the overall expectation of steel prices optimistic, but it is still necessary to wait and see for a long time. After all, there are still many uncertain factors." He said

steel inventory increased

last April, steel prices showed an overall upward trend. Taking Tangshan area of Hebei Province as an example, the price of rebar was 2700 yuan per ton on April 24, 2016, which was up 60% in four months compared with the level of 1600 yuan per ton on December 19, 2015

by late February this year, the prices of various steel products also showed an upward trend, but the situation has changed since then, especially since late March, the prices of various steel products and related products have fallen significantly

in addition to the sharp drop in billet prices, the price of grade III rebar was 3860 yuan per ton on March 16 and 3230 yuan per ton on April 19, also down by about 20%. The price of hot coil was 3880 yuan per ton on February 27, and 2860 yuan per ton on April 19, a decrease of 26%

why there is such a big price drop in about one month may be related to the imbalance between supply and demand of steel and iron ore

Wang Jianhua, chief analyst of Shanghai Steel Union, believes that there is an expectation that the price will rise this year. As a result, various enterprises try to increase production, but the demand has not improved, resulting in this round of price correction, "this range will be relatively deep and the time will be relatively long"

Zhang Jinping, senior analyst of jinlianchuang, also believes that there is no peak season of gold, silver and four in steel this year. The sharp rise in national infrastructure investment has not driven demand growth, and a large number of steel mills are speeding up production, so it is natural for steel inventories to increase and excess supply

according to the statistics of Mysteel station, as of March 31, 2017, the iron ore inventory in 45 ports across the country was 134.56 million tons, at a historically high level

according to the figures released by the National Bureau of statistics, the national crude steel output in the first quarter of 2017 was 201 million tons, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year, and the pig iron output was 176 million tons, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year

market demand may weaken

steel prices have fallen sharply, and the growth rate of industrial prices is expected to decline significantly in April

previously, in March 2017, the ex factory price of national industrial producers increased by 7.6% year-on-year, a decrease from the 7.8% growth rate in the same period last year, which is also the first decline in the price growth rate in more than a year

Zhang Jun, head of Morgan Stanley Huaxin securities research department, believes that the future trend of steel prices is closely related to the real estate market. "In view of the current upgrading of real estate regulation across the country, the scope of purchase restrictions has expanded from first tier cities to hot second and third tier cities. In the short term, sudden braking from the perspective of control technology may cause real estate investment to stall."

he believes that it is difficult for infrastructure investment to maintain an annual growth rate of more than 15% this year. With the weakening demand, the demand for replenishment of inventory will also come to an end. It is expected that China's economic growth may slow down again in the second quarter

in addition, the market demand also needs to be observed. Previously, the national steel production capacity reduction target in 2016 was 45million tons, but this year it was raised to 50million tons. At the same time, all ground bars will be removed by the end of June this year. It was originally expected that steel demand would lead to higher prices due to capacity reduction, but the market was somewhat contrary to expectations

Wang Jianhua, chief analyst of Shanghai Steel Union, believes that the recent year-on-year increase in steel inventory has not only the advantages of raw materials, including social inventory and steel mill inventory, but also the reason for the recent decline in steel prices. In the next step, although the country will go to the steel production capacity, the price trend is still determined by the market

in the next stage, it may depend on the progress of the inspection and acceptance of the ban on steel bars. At that time, there may be a rebound in steel prices. But this rebound will be affected by the overall demand, especially in the context of the country's continued deleveraging. "There is still room for prices to explore, but they will also be supported in the context of reform and have a certain rebound, but the rebound height is limited." Wang Jianhua said

this year, the state is preparing to prevent such a sharp rise and fall in prices. On March 27, the national development and Reform Commission's steel capacity reduction meeting proposed that "three lines" should be grasped to reduce steel capacity this year: the first line is the "bottom line", which should ensure the completion of the capacity reduction task of about 50million tons; The second line is the "red line", which should be completely banned; The third line is "online". We should pay close attention to the steel market price to prevent the market from ups and downs

Luo Tiejun, an inspector of the raw materials department of the Ministry of industry, said recently that the ban on "ground steel bars" will be completed by the end of June. In order to prevent malicious market speculation, steel prices have experienced ups and downs. The Ministry of industry and information technology will guide local governments to scientifically grasp the strength and pace of reliable de capacity testing results

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